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Survey Indicates Ammo Shortage Likely To Continue. Ammo Shortage Will Last Deep into 2021

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    Survey Indicates Ammo Shortage Likely To Continue. Ammo Shortage Will Last Deep into 2021

    Two Articles from the American Hunter

    https://www.americanrifleman.org/con...y-to-continue/

    https://www.americanrifleman.org/con...eep-into-2021/

    Market research conducted by Southwick Associates indicates last year’s demand for ammunition—that drained inventories and kept many shelves empty—will remain strong well into 2021. Results from the company’s April survey, which polled 1,800 ammunition consumers as part of its quarterly HunterSurvey/ShooterSurvey, found 80 percent of respondents ran into out-of-stock issues in 2020, and 75 percent have already encountered the same situation this year.

    In all, nearly 80 percent of those who participated in the survey either canceled or reduced shooting-related activities due to the shortage. Only 17 percent were satisfied with the number of cartridges and/or shotshells they have on hand, while two thirds stated they would prefer to own more.

    “At some point, demand will certainly soften,” said Rob Southwick, president of Southwick Associates. “However, frenzied purchasing and empty shelves often fuels further increases in demand. We do not see demand softening in the near future.”

    When respondents were asked why they needed more ammunition, survey results showed a marked difference between age groups. Those between the ages of 25 and 34 were more likely to indicate it was needed to supply their shooting and hunting activity. Enthusiasts more than 45 years of age dominated the group motivated by uncertainly in future supply.

    Overall, the vast majority of participants—72 percent—cited the latter concern. Seven out of 10 said restrictions were also a motivating factor, and 54 percent indicated economic uncertainty was also a factor. Lack of cartridges for their field or firing-line pursuits was the motivation for 26 percent.

    Although demand for ammunition and components remains at record-setting levels, inventories have been bolstered by the reopening of the Remington ammunition plant in Lonoke, AR. Its temporary closure during the height of pandemic concern and urban unrest is often cited as part of a trifecta that contributed to the current surge and commensurate drop in supply.

    Ammo Shortage Will Last Deep into 2021

    https://www.americanrifleman.org/con...eep-into-2021/

    Comments made by Vista Outdoor CEO and Director Christopher Metz during the company’s quarterly earnings call last month indicate ammunition will continue to be scare well into 2021.

    “We currently have over a year’s worth of orders for ammunition in excess of $1 billion,” he said in his opening remarks. “This is unprecedented for our company. With demand far outstripping supply and inventory levels in the channel at all-time lows, we see strong demand continuing…”

    He cautioned there are notable differences between today’s low-cartridge inventories and that of 2016, which may indicate the current situation may be longer lasting. Metz explained the volume of new shooters is one driving factor.

    “According to data from the NSSF, there are 6.2 million new shooters in 2020. This rate is more than twice the number of new shooters in the former surge. Anecdotally, there is no shortage of reports of sold out shooting ranges and backlogged firearm safety classes around the country.”

    In addition, the broader demographic of enthusiasts, “…has led to an increase in participation as they learn and enjoy their new purchases,” he said. “Data from the NSSF indicates these shooters are more diverse, with large increases in both women and people of color entering the sport.”

    “We have cleaned inventory in all retail and wholesale locations,” Metz said. “Despite us producing flat out for 6 months, there is no buildup of inventory at any of our customers. In fact, every one of them would like significantly more. Simply put, consumer demand continues to outpace our ability to supply.”

    The good news is that Vista Outdoor has purchased the ammunition factory in Lonoke, AR—formerly owned by Remington Outdoor—and churning it back toward production at or near full capacity. The Northwest Arkansas Democrat Gazette reports 300 employees furloughed by the former owner of the plant will soon be recalled to join nearly 400 still working at the facility.

    Regardless of manufacturer, demand is heavy and inventory low. The trend began early in 2020 and as early as August—during Olin’s quarterly report (parent company of Winchester Ammunition)—company CEO John Fischer warned investors that, “We expect this elevated level of demand to continue at least until the end of the year.”
    "Nothing in the world is more dangerous than sincere ignorance and conscientious stupidity." Martin Luther King, Jr.

    #2
    The situation has gotten so bad that I've taken up golf again.

    Comment


    • Augustus
      Augustus commented
      Editing a comment
      I played last week for the first time in 20 years. I was better than I used to be because I'm old now

    • Aquabach
      Aquabach commented
      Editing a comment
      I like the windmill

    • LI Ammo
      LI Ammo commented
      Editing a comment
      Aquabach commented
      06-10-2021, 09:09 AM
      I like the windmill

      We should pause to appreciate dry and low key humor that lurks on the board.

    #3
    I'm starting to see a little more availability. More postings here for ammo available at TSUSA and some stores. The prices are still high but seem to have come down a smidge. It ain't over but it seems to have softened a tiny bit.
    "The devil doesn't come dressed in a red cape and pointy horns. He comes as everything you've ever wished for.”
    Tucker Max

    Infirmitate Invitat Violentiam
    Finicky Fat Guy

    Comment


      #4
      At least the ammo is staying in stock for a bit and not selling out instantly now. It’ll be a slow transition but I think we’re on the upswing

      Comment


        #5
        The problem is the upswing will never get us back even close to where we were. I predict we'll be paying at least $20 for a box of 9mm for years. (Until it rises again.)

        Comment


        #6
        Ammo, like any other commodity, has an equilibrium point. I think ammo prices are at that level right now. They drift up and sales slow down. Inventories begin to build until prices dip slightly. I hated micro economics in college (because I hated my professor and my TA, who was from Laos and could barely speak English) but it is interesting to see it in action.

        Comment


          #7
          , it can be even longer. Figure 25% of people are buying at the exorbitant prices and the rest are waiting for it to drop to their particular price point to jump back in.
          Diplomacy is the art of saying 'Nice doggie' until you can find a rock.

          Comment


            #8
            Originally posted by Finicky Fat Guy View Post
            I'm starting to see a little more availability. More postings here for ammo available at TSUSA and some stores. The prices are still high but seem to have come down a smidge. It ain't over but it seems to have softened a tiny bit.
            True but components haven’t and will most likely be the last things to come down in price and longest awaited in terms of availability
            A .45acp says go away in any language ~ Clint Smith

            Comment


            • Finicky Fat Guy
              Finicky Fat Guy commented
              Editing a comment
              No doubt. I have enough components to last a good while so I haven't been looking at those at all, other than an occasional stocking up of heads that I don't need. It took about 4 months to get my last order from Ibejiheads.

            #9
            Ammo Shortage Will Last Deep into 2021

            We are already 6 months in so it will be just in time for Santa to stuff my stocking with ammo !

            Comment


            • Aquabach
              Aquabach commented
              Editing a comment
              Lets hope

            #10
            prices on raw materials have spiked, brass, copper , lead and im sure whatever chemicals go into making powders and primers are higher, so until those come down prices will be higher..now do they have to be as high as they are ?? NO, but everyone in the supply line is screwing the end consumer and using every excuse to keep the price up much higher than it needs to be....it just goes back to the old supply and demand game..if you need it you will pay for it..this happens with food, and every other item we purchase....just look at the prices in the grocery store and the gas pumps...and oce you get use to paying more..the prices will come down some but I doubt it will ever go back to pre shortage prices..again it would be great if it did, but im not so hopeful on that...
            then add in the political side of anything that has to do with firearms and they will try to tax,fee or whatever else they can think of to make it more expensive to try and knock out alot of people from owning or shooting...
            You cant cure stupid, only kill it......
            Of all the things I lost, I miss my mind the most.....

            Comment


              #11
              This shortage is unlike any other..

              This shit is real.

              Not just an inconvenience.

              Being a skeet shooter I was lucky that I had a fair amount of the four gauges in stock but going forward things have to loosen up especially in the small gauges by next summer.

              When the covid began I bought right away otherwise I would be in very bad shape. But this time I’m buying real deep and never worrying again.

              I don’t need deer ammo at this point but I’m worried about lead free in the future because I know it’s coming.

              Comment


                #12
                Originally posted by Mike103 View Post
                This shortage is unlike any other..

                This shit is real.

                Not just an inconvenience.

                Being a skeet shooter I was lucky that I had a fair amount of the four gauges in stock but going forward things have to loosen up especially in the small gauges by next summer.

                When the covid began I bought right away otherwise I would be in very bad shape. But this time I’m buying real deep and never worrying again.

                I don’t need deer ammo at this point but I’m worried about lead free in the future because I know it’s coming.
                I was at Yaphank recently and they RAN OUT of 12-gauge! That's like MacDonald's running out of fries!

                This is very real.

                Comment


                • Aquabach
                  Aquabach commented
                  Editing a comment
                  😭

                #13
                Originally posted by Range Time View Post

                I was at Yaphank recently and they RAN OUT of 12-gauge! That's like MacDonald's running out of fries!

                This is very real.
                They ran out of clays last time I was there. Lehigh Valley or M&E for me next time I shoot sportys.
                NRA Life member

                Comment


                  #14
                  Originally posted by Sig View Post

                  They ran out of clays last time I was there. Lehigh Valley or M&E for me next time I shoot sportys.
                  Sadly, were still lucky to have it.
                  LVSC blows it away though.
                  They have ammo but they ask people to bring their own if they can so it must be hard to get.
                  clays on the other hand seem to be in huge supply judging by all the boxes I see in stores

                  It seems the last few years that Yaphank's management truly doesn't give a shit about the place.
                  They don't seem to take any pride in their business.
                  They don't do the simplest of maintenance.
                  I heard while they were shutdown they laid everyone off and did not bring them back until a day or 2 before they reopened.
                  Contrast that to LVSC which kept their full staff on for a month and took the down time to perform maintenance and improvements.
                  Yaphank doesn't even put a screw in a falling apart gun rack on the trap field



                  "Nothing in the world is more dangerous than sincere ignorance and conscientious stupidity." Martin Luther King, Jr.

                  Comment


                    #15
                    When Target Sports sends you your annual Prime membership " Thank you" and the ammo box had nothing it but stickers... First time in years. That's a concern. Not even a 12 gauge slug !

                    Comment


                    • Aquabach
                      Aquabach commented
                      Editing a comment
                      I cancelled my membership. Told them they had less supply than most people at prices I'm not interested in
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