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The mathematics of needing to prep?

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    The mathematics of needing to prep?

    I stumbled across this article.

    Whether you prep or not, whether you believe or not there will be a CW or some kind of WROL or TEOTWAWHKI event, this seems to be a very well thought out mathematical analysis of such situations.
    The Surprisingly Solid Mathematical Case of the Tin Foil Hat Gun Prepper

    As gun policy discussions unfold in the wake of mass shooter incidents, they routinely end in three buckets. There’s the “tyranny can never happen here” bucket, which the left has mostly abdicated in…
    I am not armed out of fear of who's in front of me.
    I am armed out of love of those behind me.

    Anyone who says money doesn't matter to them is either a FOOL or a LIAR or BOTH!

    #2
    I read that the other day and thought it interesting but some of his "data" is rather arbitrary in at least one instance:

    "Stepping through this, the average year for colony establishment is 1678, which is 340 years ago. Two qualifying events in 340 years is a 0.5882% annual chance of nationwide violent revolution against the ruling government. Do the same math as we did above with the floodplains, in precisely the same way, and we see a 37% chance that any American of average life expectancy will experience at least one nationwide violent revolution."

    Why just count the Revolution and the Civil War? Why not include the Whiskey Rebellion, Nat Turner's and John Brown's revolts? Hell Wikipedia lists at least 40 in 7 categories and doesn't even begin to count the unrest in the 60's and more recently resulting in riots.
    "The devil doesn't come dressed in a red cape and pointy horns. He comes as everything you've ever wished for.”
    Tucker Max

    Infirmitate Invitat Violentiam
    Finicky Fat Guy

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      #3
      I think he is thinking more by scale/size of the offensive than the actual attempt numbers. By that thinking, radical groups like The Weather Underground's bombings were an attempt at revolution/CW.

      Plus as each year passes without an attempted revolution that percentage declines.

      As with most models you can poke holes. But I thought it was a good essay nonetheless.
      I am not armed out of fear of who's in front of me.
      I am armed out of love of those behind me.

      Anyone who says money doesn't matter to them is either a FOOL or a LIAR or BOTH!

      Comment


        #4
        Oh, I thought it was good too and I get that he went with the biggest events but from the standpoint of what you prepare for I think it would have made more sense to have included the smaller and local events. For instance, in the last 20 years we have experienced 9/11, the 2013 blackout, and 2 major storms Irene and Sandy. All of those either did or could easily have turned really ugly for those in the metro NY area. I heard a lot of stories about significant looting after Sandy.

        Prepare for the mostly likely and most common and you should be ready for worse. Getting people to prepare is the hurdle. Including the smaller and more common events would show the scoffs that they need to get busy.
        "The devil doesn't come dressed in a red cape and pointy horns. He comes as everything you've ever wished for.”
        Tucker Max

        Infirmitate Invitat Violentiam
        Finicky Fat Guy

        Comment


          #5
          Short story..... What I saw was ... being it aint raining .....looks like a revolution is at hand... Good news is ..I didn't prepare for rain anyway...... lets get it on.

          Comment


            #6
            It may take more than one strike of the match to light the fire.

            Comment

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