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Donald Trump: I’ll Sign National Reciprocity if It Reaches My Desk

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    #16
    Originally posted by TheMongoose View Post
    Vote early. Seriously. Manpower issues at the Board of Elections will make Election Day a shit show.
    my son’s Eagle Scout counsellor has been a volunteer for years with elections. He told me that all the older electoral officers, which elections rely on heavily, stepped back due to COVID. The new, younger volunteers have no clue. Very disorganized.




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      #17
      Trump is not a real 2A guy to push for anything like that, and I haven't heard one mention of the NRA from either side so you know they've been seriously politically kneecapped. GOP Congress had their chance and totally blew it in 2017. Paul Ryan and Mitch can go choke on each other's...oh, you get the idea.

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        #18
        Originally posted by Aquabach View Post

        If we lost the Senate it matter even more that trump gets re elected.
        A Biden Presidency with the Dems holding the House and Senate would mean we have President Harris in charge
        FIFY

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          #19
          Originally posted by spider View Post
          My modeling tells me that it could go either way. POTUS is still up for grabs.
          You still model? You’ve got long legs...but...

          Comment


            #20
            Originally posted by Huntington Guy View Post

            You still model? You’ve got long legs...but...
            Whatever pays the bills.
            Giza Development: Building and Renovating Pyramids of Distinction Since 2435 BC 631-427-1691 (Beware the Sea People)

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              #21
              Originally posted by Huntington Guy View Post

              You still model? You’ve got long legs...but...
              https://www.lichtman2020.com/keys

              Too close to call.
              Giza Development: Building and Renovating Pyramids of Distinction Since 2435 BC 631-427-1691 (Beware the Sea People)

              Comment


                #22
                Originally posted by spider View Post
                You need to listen to my buddy Helmut

                Helmut Norpoth.
                https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/polit...in/ar-BB18DnMH

                Trump Landslide Win


                STONY BROOK, NY - President Donald Trump will defeat former vice president Joe Biden in a landslide in 2020, says Stony Brook University professor and political scientist, Helmut Norpoth.



                Not only did Norpoth correctly predict Trump's win over Hillary Clinton in 2016, but he has gotten right five of the past six presidential elections using his Primary Model; a statistical representation of U.S. presidential races based on data going back more than a century, according to a news release by the university.

                According to Norpoth, Trump has a 91 percent chance of winning re-election. The model also has Trump securing 362 electoral votes. His prediction runs contrary to most polls - similar to 2016.

                When applied to previous elections, the Primary Model was accurate 25 of 27 times; missing only Al Gore's defeat to George W. Bush and Richard Nixon's loss to John F. Kennedy.

                Norpoth put his model to the test for the first time in 1996 after having started working on it post-1992 election.

                "My first forecast was the 1996 election, the one where Bill Clinton was re-elected for a second term," he said in a news release. "Predicting a Clinton win was considered a stretch at the time because he was pretty bad in his first term."

                Norpoth continues to evolve his model to this day. The key metric the professor used, even in its early stages, are the results of presidential primaries. The focus on those primaries is the difference between his model and others, he said.

                "It’s all about primary elections, which are real electoral contests and the votes are counted and tabulated," he said. "I also use real numbers, such as the results of previous elections, which indicate whether the pendulum is swinging away from or toward the White House party. This is something that also relies on real election results and not any kind of an opinion poll."

                Norpoth does not take approval ratings into account under his model, saying that it's a poll number, which he doesn't use. The primary performance of a sitting president is a proxy for that, he added.

                Norpoth wasn't surprised his model predicted a landslide win for Trump.

                "When I looked at New Hampshire and I saw that Donald Trump got 85 percent of the votes, and the closest challenger was Bill Weld at 10 percent, I was pretty sure what the model was going to predict," he said. "If Trump had gotten only 55 percent and an opponent had gotten 40 percent, I may not have predicted that Donald Trump would have a chance to win. Maybe. It would depend on the other side as well."

                On the other side of the aisle, Norpoth believes the high amount of Democratic Party candidates, and the "inability" of one of them to get off the launchpad may have "doomed the party from the start."

                "People have forgotten how Joe Biden did in New Hampshire," Norpoth said. "He was terrible. He got 8.4 percent of the vote, which is unbelievable for a candidate with any aspirations of being president."

                The professor said his model is simply math.

                "Everybody thinks Trump is going to go down in flames, and here I am predicting with almost total certainty that he’s going to win," he said. "It seems crazy. But it’s not."
                "Nothing in the world is more dangerous than sincere ignorance and conscientious stupidity." Martin Luther King, Jr.

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                  #23
                  ^^^ I hope you are right. I was much more confident 6 months ago. They’ve been effective in blaming a slumped (temporary) on DJT without allowing a frigging pandemic to be a causal factor.
                  Even the info about what a POS Biden and his crew are and his and Harris’s invisibility to the media and answering a single fuckin question Biden remains surprisingly popular in polling.

                  Fingers crossed I am wrong or don’t know WTF I’m talking about.

                  Comment


                    #24
                    Originally posted by Paté View Post
                    Donald Trump: I’ll Sign National Reciprocity if It Reaches My Desk

                    AWR Hawkins15 Oct 2020Twitter/President Trump
                    2:11

                    During an interview with the NRA’s 1st Freedom, President Donald Trump said he would sign national reciprocity legislation for concealed carry if it reaches his desk.

                    The outlet posed the question:
                    Mr. President, each state’s driver’s license is honored across this great nation, yet a permit to carry a concealed gun — which, in contrast, is a right specifically protected in the U.S. Bill of Rights — is often not respected by other states. Will you support a national reciprocity act so that law-abiding gun owners can more easily travel with their freedom?

                    Trump responded by making sure the focus was on concealed carry permit holders crossing state lines, to which 1st Freedom said, “Yes.”

                    Trump then said, “I will support such legislation. If it comes across my desk I will sign it.”



                    This is the same position Trump promoted while seeking the Republican nomination for the presidency in September 2015.

                    On September 18, 2015, Breitbart News reported a Trump position paper wherein he voiced his support for national reciprocity, saying “The right of self-defense doesn’t stop at the end of your driveway. That’s why I have a concealed carry permit and why tens of millions of Americans do too. That permit should be valid in all 50 states.”

                    “A driver’s license works in every state, so it’s common sense that a concealed carry permit should work in every state,” the paper read. “If we can do that for driving – which is a privilege, not a right – then surely we can do that for concealed carry, which is a right, not a privilege.”

                    AWR Hawkins is an award-winning Second Amendment columnist for Breitbart News and the writer/curator of Down Range with AWR Hawkins, a weekly newsletter focused on all things Second Amendment, also for Breitbart News. He is the political analyst for Armed American Radio. Follow him on Twitter: @AWRHawkins. Reach him directly at [email protected]. Sign up to get Down Range at breitbart.com/downrange.
                    From his lips to to God’s ear
                    A .45acp says go away in any language ~ Clint Smith

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                      #25
                      Originally posted by Aquabach View Post


                      1) The key metric the professor used, even in its early stages, are the results of presidential primaries. The focus on those primaries is the difference between his model and others, he said. "It’s all about primary elections, which are real electoral contests and the votes are counted and tabulated," he said. "I also use real numbers, such as the results of previous elections, which indicate whether the pendulum is swinging away from or toward the White House party. This is something that also relies on real election results and not any kind of an opinion poll."

                      2) Norpoth does not take approval ratings into account under his model, saying that it's a poll number, which he doesn't use. The primary performance of a sitting president is a proxy for that, he added."When I looked at New Hampshire and I saw that Donald Trump got 85 percent of the votes, and the closest challenger was Bill Weld at 10 percent, I was pretty sure what the model was going to predict," he said.

                      3) "People have forgotten how Joe Biden did in New Hampshire," Norpoth said. "He was terrible. He got 8.4 percent of the vote, which is unbelievable for a candidate with any aspirations of being president."

                      I edited it down to the key points. Don't believe the polls.
                      Giza Development: Building and Renovating Pyramids of Distinction Since 2435 BC 631-427-1691 (Beware the Sea People)

                      Comment


                        #26
                        I call bullshit. Had 4 years to figure it out, all of a sudden promises come out weeks before the election?
                        It's all the same, we're all ashamed of our children who can't read between the lies of their textbooks
                        This world must bear witness to a revolution every now and then
                        We clutched our quills to scribe the bills of this great nation
                        Now show me you can hold a fucking pen

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                          #27
                          Didn’t make it when we had the house and senate, it’s never going to happen now

                          Comment


                            #28
                            Originally posted by 67Builder View Post

                            Take the house? I'm not even sure they will keep the senate at this point.
                            Way too many republicans in tight races to be comfortable with the senate staying sane. And if we lose the senate, it won't matter if Trump gets re-elected. The dems will have the votes to oust a duly elected leader as soon as they seat for the next session.

                            Though I'm sure they have enough voter fraud planned to get Biden the vote of every man woman and child both living and dead in order to get him into the white house.
                            Whether any of it is true or not, that’s all what they want you to think. Stay positive. Vote in person. Speak positively to anyone and everyone in all forms of media. No matter what you believe in your stomach. And let the chips fall where they may. We can not afford to not give our very best for every waking second between now and 11/3.

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                              #29
                              B4687A19-95A6-4AFB-8552-026B4F451900.jpeg
                              Originally posted by spider View Post
                              Long term and short term economy favors the Dems?

                              No sustained social unrest?

                              That guy needs to put his crack pipe down and pull his head out of his ass.
                              Steve

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                                #30
                                Originally posted by vmtcmt View Post
                                B4687A19-95A6-4AFB-8552-026B4F451900.jpeg

                                Long term and short term economy favors the Dems?

                                No sustained social unrest?

                                That guy needs to put his crack pipe down and pull his head out of his ass.
                                That's what throws it in the air. Social unrest favors a new POTUS.
                                Giza Development: Building and Renovating Pyramids of Distinction Since 2435 BC 631-427-1691 (Beware the Sea People)

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